Ewolucja metod analizy skutków integracji handlowej

The theory of economic integration dates back to the mid-20th century. In the 1970s, initial empirical studies on the effects of economic integration appeared during the first stage of the functioning of the customs union in the European Economic Community. Researchers mostly highlighted the customs union’s static effects: trade creation, trade expansion, and trade diversion. The gravity model of trade became the basic econometric model for the ex-post analysis of the effects of economic integration, usually implying the positive impact of the integration on the trade flow. However, the expansion of integration and the trade negotiations created a need for the ex-ante analysis of the effects of such activities. To this end, the simulation models were developed, in particular computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Such models allow for the analysis of how the economy might react to the changes; however, their complexity limits their usability in public discourse.