Energy System Development Scenarios: Case of Poland

Europe’s ambition to be the first climate-neutral continent and to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will result in changes to the energy systems of many countries. This overlaps with the principles of circular economy, energy independence, and the continuity of operations enshrined in many national and regional documents. From the above, a scenario based on renewable resources emerges. However, in a country such as Poland, with conventional energy sources and large state participation in the sector, is this feasible? The authors assumed that the urgent need for a turbulence-sensitive analysis of energy sector changes can be met by using a new view, defined by the authors as a matrix of four oceans scenarios. Black, Grey, Red and Green scenarios are determined by the proportion of the state and the local-community sector. Then, assuming the possibility of introducing two of them by 2050—Green (radical) and Red (competitive)—empirical research was carried out on a purposively selected group of experts. The business model of the sector was analyzed in terms of six links that create economic and social value: energy sources, energy producers, transmission networks with infrastructure, energy storage, energy system management and energy consumers. According to experts, development of business model links will be based on the Red scenario. Thus, we get a picture of a model that should be considered by politicians, scientists, as well as a wide audience that absorbs the effects of environmental pollution.