The futures of ethnic groups in the Russian Federation

The changes, sometimes dramatic, in the size and structure of the ethnic groups of the Russian Federation (RF) raise questions about their possible futures. The paper presents simulations of how ethnic groups of the RF could develop in the future and discusses the demographic aspects of the predicted changes. The simulations cover a 25-year period, from 1 January 2011 to 1 January 2036 and were prepared for the 22 most numerous ethnic groups using a multistate cohort-component population dynamics model. To prepare the assumptions for the simulations, ethnicity-specific data (no longer collected) on fertility, mortality, and international migration were used. The results indicate that in the coming 20 years Russia will face numerous challenges related to the changes in the size, age structure, and ethnic composition of its population. The population of the RF will age and, except in the “Modernization” scenario, will shrink. Non-Slavic and Muslim populations will increase their share in the total population at the expense of Slavic and Orthodox ethnic groups and will age more slowly.