2019 European Parliament Election in Poland: who benefitted from the record increase in turnout?

One of the main factors that determines voter turnout is the mobilisation of the constituency of a given party compared with that of its opponents. The turnout in the 2019 European Parliament election in Poland was twice what it had been in previous years, and the result was forecast accordingly. The media initially reported that the victorious PiS had benefitted from new votes. The present article shows that drilling down to the lowest level of administrative unit (viz. the gmina) actually reveals a negative correlation between higher frequency and increased support for PiS in many cases. This implies that PiS did not win solely as a result of new voters being mobilised, but also, and perhaps predominantly, because KE voters switched their allegiance to PiS. Many new voters actually voted for the opposition.