Relacja cen uprawnień do emisji CO2 i cen energii elektrycznej w Polsce w latach 2013-20

Przedmiotem niniejszej rozprawy jest relacja pomiędzy cenami uprawnień do emisji CO2, w systemie ETS (Emission Trading System), a cenami hurtowymi energii elektrycznej na Towarowej Giełdzie Energii w Warszawie, w latach 2013-2020. W badaniu wykorzystano modele regresji liniowej do oszacowania współczynnika odzwierciedlającego przenoszenie cen uprawnień do emisji dwutlenku węgla na hurtowe ceny energii elektrycznej podczas całej III fazy ETS (2013-2020). Wyniki wykazały, że cały koszt uprawnień do emisji CO2 został przez wytwórców uwzględniony w hurtowej cenie energii elektrycznej. Zgodnie z oczekiwaniami, szczytowy parametr transmisji (PEAK) jest wyższy niż pozaszczytowy (OFF-PEAK). Niemniej różnica jest niewielka i nieistotna statystycznie, zatem badanie nie pozwala na wyciąganie daleko idących wniosków w tym zakresie. Wyniki pokazują, że producenci energii elektrycznej byli w stanie przenieść całość kosztów związanych z emisją na odbiorców, co może rodzić pytanie, na ile skuteczny jest system ETS jako narzędzie, które powinno stanowić zachętę do dekarbonizacji produkcji energii elektrycznej. Jednocześnie na poziomie UE wprowadza się regulacje dotyczące sektora energetycznego, z których część bazuje na założeniu, że ceny uprawnień są całkowicie uwzględniane w cenach energii.

The dissertation investigates the relation between the prices of CO2 emission allowances in the EU ETS (Emission Trading System) and wholesale electricity prices in Poland. Linear regression models were used to assess carbon price pass-through rate to wholesale electricity prices during the entire III phase of ETS (2013-2020). It has been found that the entire cost of CO2 emission allowances was included in the wholesale electricity price. As expected, the peak transmission parameter is higher than the off-peak one. Nevertheless, the difference is small and statistically insignificant. Hence the model does not allow for any far-reaching conclusions in this regard. Results show that electricity producers were able to pass the entire emission-related costs to the customers, which might raise a question of whether EU ETS is an effective tool to give sufficient incentives to decarbonise electricity production. The first chapter presents the concept of negative externalities as well as the two main market approaches to reducing them - Pigouvian tax and approach proposed by R. Coase, namely setting the price of the negative externality through negotiation. A polemic with the above-mentioned concepts is also presented, especially regarding situations in which there are many harmed idividuals or multiple causes of negative externalities. A short review of cap-and-trade systems that are in palce around the world is presented. In addition, literature on taxation externalities vs. cap-and-trade approach is discussed. The possibilities of co-existence of both solutions are also presented, as well as the issue of using several climate policy tools together. The second chapter describes the main characteristics and the functioning of the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system - EU ETS. In addition, the characteristics of the Polish power system is presented, including: installed capacity divided into generation sources, electricity consumption and emission intensity of the generation system. Basic information about the electricity market in Poland in 2013-2020 is also provided. The third chapter discusses the impact of the EU ETS on electricity prices, including the determinants of CO2 emission allowance prices, the emission intensity of generating units and factors affecting the possibility of passing on the costs of emission allowances to electricity prices. The impact of the EU ETS on the profits of electricity producers and the functioning of the energy market, including pricing models, as well as their effects on the prices paid by end users, are briefly presented. The fourth chapter presents a broad review of the literature on the pass-through-rate (PTR) of CO2 emissions costs to electricity prices. Most of the cited literature concerns the EU ETS system, however examples of research on PTR in other cap-and-trade regulatory systems are also presented. The fifth chapter presents the research methodology, hypotheses, econometric models used and information on the characteristics and sources of data used for the study. The research results and conclusions are presented and discussed.