Trade implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Polands agri-food trade

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the implications of tradeliberalization under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)for the Polish economy. We analyze the level of tariffs and non-tariff protectionin the US and in the EU and identify products particularly “sensitive” from thepoint of view of TTIP liberalization. With the help of a partial equilibriummodel, we simulate the trade implications of the TTIP for Poland’s trade withthe US at the detailed product level. We analyze trade creation and diversioneffects of tariff elimination and partial removal of non-tariff barriers. We foundthat the TTIP can increase Poland’s trade with the US by around 45 percentwith a limited impact on its trade with the European Union (EU) members.Subsequent general equilibrium simulations show that trade diversion effects ofthe TTIP are substantial, while the welfare benefits of the agreement are limite