Tracing and Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic Infections in Poland Using Spatial Interactions Models

The nexus of factors influencing the dissemination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is so complex that identification of (some) determining factors of COVID-19 spatial diffusion is significantly hampered. COVID-19 characterize of specific dynamics and enormous volume of morbidity. The aim of the study is construction of the model of spatial dissemination of COVID-19 in Poland, identification of the main outbreak places and spatial heterogeneity of pandemic based on the spatial set of first twelve months morbidity data (in 2020 and 2021). The target (prototypical) model is intended rather as the supporting tool than replacement of the well-known and used SIR or SEIR (Susceptible – Exposed – Infected - Recovered) models in epidemiology. It also assumed that the target model could be used as a priori estimation tool of the spatial locations of infections outbreaks as well as evaluation of future volume of infections due to changing numbers of exposed and recovered persons related also to, newly, introduced and continuation coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations. One of the expected advantages of the construed model is its spatial aspect i.e. it will enable to evaluate the potential spatial differentiation of infected number of people within the set of observed spatial units i.e. counties in Poland.