Europa Wschodnia i Kaukaz Południowy - krucha stabilizacja

The year 2016 confirmed the trends observed in Eastern Europe and South Caucasus earlier. The region entered a period of “small stabilization”, although this was not a reason for particular optimism. First, no major political changes occurred in most of the countries in the region. The parliamentary elections in Georgia confirmed the leadership of the Georgian Dream party. Only the first direct presidential elections in Moldova since 1996 could have a major influence on its domestic and foreign policy. Second, the military conflict in Donbas (Ukraine) deescalated, while the one in Nagorno-Karabakh turned briefly into an open war. Third, the region still faced economic problems, although most of the countries witnessed some signs of economic recovery. Forth, the traditional division of the region between 'pro-Western' and 'pro-Russian' states was furtherly relativized. Struggling with internal and external challenges, the European Union was unable to develop a coherent and transparent policy towards the region: the association agreement with Ukraine remained unratified, the abolition of the visa regime for Ukraine and Georgia was delayed, while the sanctions against the authoritarian Belarussian regime were de facto lifted. Azerbaijan and Moldova adopted a more favorable approach to Russia, while the relations of the latter with Belarus and Armenia became more difficult.