The “Peaceful Rise” of China: avoiding Thucydides’ Trap

The thesis will explore the relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America within the context of the post-Cold War global order, with the US enjoying a position of great strength, economically, diplomatically, as well as militarily. However, the thesis assumes that this is subject to change, with China potentially coming to surpass the US as the global hegemon. With that in mind, it should be pointed out that such an event could also bring with it a conventional military confrontation between the two. Therefore, an analysis of the concept of hegemonic replacement will be made, using Thucydides’ Trap as a framework to gauge whether the status of hegemon can be transferred peacefully, or whether a conflict scenario is inevitable, based on historical evidence, as well as the current status of the relationship between the United States and China. Following a description of the concept of Thucydides’ Trap and hegemonic order, the current position and strength of both the United States and China will be examined, as well as their potential for future growth, with an emphasis on the military aspect, while not neglecting the economic standpoint. Moreover, the two countries’ foreign policy will also come under scrutiny, seeing as their doctrines and intentions present in their relationship with each other can be the telling sign whether either, or both of them, are on the warpath.