Household Expenditures in Cities During the War: Modelling the Estimation Through the Correlation of Housing Rent Costs and Consumer Goods Prices

This article determines the effect of crisis changes on the structure of household expenditures in the following different regions of Ukraine: Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Vinnytsia. The study covers the period before the full-scale Russian invasion (2017–2022) and after its onset (2022–2024). We analysed the data through correlation analysis and the Cobb–Douglas consumption function model to determine the structure of expenditures depending on two factors: the cost of housing rental and consumer goods prices. Before the full-scale invasion, we observed a stable positive correlation in most cities between the cost of housing and prices of goods, with changes in one indicator being reflected in the other. After the invasion began in the affected regions (Kharkiv and Odesa), the correlation between prices of goods and the cost of housing rental changed from positive to negative. In the regions that were less affected (Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv), the correlation remained or grew stronger due to increased demand. This article therefore contributes to understanding consumer behaviour in times of crisis.