The Role of Kazakhstan in EU Energy Import Diversification Policy

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU reframed energy as an urgent security issue, decoupling from Russian suppliers and turning to alternative partners. Kazakhstan specifically comes into view because it possesses large volumes of oil, gas and critical raw materials, but its position is complicated as it is dependent on Russia for its export routes. The research question of the thesis is to what extent Kazakhstan can be considered as a reliable partner for the EU and over what time horizon. Three theoretical frameworks help identify important factors: asymmetrical interdependence of Keohane and Nye looks into the strengths and weaknesses of each party, securitisation explores how energy security is framed, and political economy captures the domestic structure that determines the external actions of the parties. Four chapters build the case by first establishing the core concepts of theories, then examining the EU’s behaviour after 2022 and its political fragmentation over energy. The research then turns to the Kazakhstani stance on its hydrocarbon sector based on the multi-vector foreign policy and opportunities and challenges for the EU–Kazakhstan relationship, and finally, to the assessment of the legal framework and alternative export routes. The main methodology is based on content analysis of official policy documents, supported by trade data, legal instruments and member-state behaviour. The key finding on structural dependence on the Russian-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium is confirmed, as the alternative routes cannot replace it and lack the investment and political commitment for development. The interests of the EU and Kazakhstan find common ground but are asymmetric, and the research confirms that it is insufficient on its own without the alternative infrastructure development and political commitment. The last finding on EU member-state fragmentation is confirmed as an external challenge for deepening the relationship with Kazakhstan. The main verdict of the thesis is that Kazakhstan is a reliable supplier of volumes at present, but not yet a reliable strategic partner for the EU.