Modelling the future of meat consumption in Poland: an agent-based approach

Purpose: The global dietary landscape is increasingly witnessing a shift in meat consumption patterns. However, an important question still concerns the direction in which these changes will continue and to what extent, in the near future, most consumers will completely give up meat products in their diet or will only limit their consumption. The second question is who is most susceptible to reducing meat in their diet and who will resist this trend. When looking for an answer to those questions, we employed an agent-based model (ABM) to analyse the data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: The model takes into account key factors influencing dietary choices through the channel of social influence, including health and ethical concerns, locus of control, food neophobia and meat eating justification. Findings: Our simulations indicate the future dominance of reducetarianism, an upswing in vegan/vegetarianism, and a decline in omnivorism. Additionally, distinct dietary trajectories are emerging among different demographic groups, often echoing initial disparities or unveiling new patterns. The study further confirms the importance of individuals as embedded actors in the transformation of the food system. Originality/value: The results offer a micro-based understanding of the evolution of dietary patterns, highlighting the value of the ABM in forecasting eating behaviour.