Artykuł w czasopiśmie
Brak miniatury
Licencja
CC-BYCC-BY - Uznanie autorstwa
 

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Uproszczony widok
cris.lastimport.scopus2024-02-12T20:20:03Z
dc.abstract.enBackground During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. Methods We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. Results We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Conclusions Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.
dc.affiliationUniwersytet Warszawski
dc.contributor.authorMiasojedow, Błażej
dc.contributor.authorGambin, Anna
dc.contributor.authorGogolewski, Krzysztof
dc.contributor.authorSchienle, Melanie
dc.contributor.authorGneiting, Tilmann
dc.contributor.authorSrivastava, Ajitesh
dc.contributor.authorSoni, Saksham
dc.contributor.authorScholz, Markus
dc.contributor.authorRakowski, Franciszek
dc.contributor.authorRadwan, Maciej
dc.contributor.authorOzanski, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorNowosielski, Jedrzej M.
dc.contributor.authorNouvellet, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorMohring, Jan
dc.contributor.authorMichaud, Isaac J.
dc.contributor.authorMeinke, Jan H.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Michael L.
dc.contributor.authorLeithäuser, Neele
dc.contributor.authorKrymova, Ekaterina
dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Tyll
dc.contributor.authorKirsten, Holger
dc.contributor.authorKheifetz, Yuri
dc.contributor.authorHotz, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorHeyder, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorFunk, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorFuhrmann, Jan
dc.contributor.authorFiedler, Jochen
dc.contributor.authorFairchild, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.authorCastro, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorBurgard, Jan Pablo
dc.contributor.authorBosse, Nikos I.
dc.contributor.authorBodych, Marcin
dc.contributor.authorBhatia, Sangeeta
dc.contributor.authorBertsimas, Dimitris
dc.contributor.authorBarbarossa, Maria V.
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, Sam
dc.contributor.authorUllrich, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorKetterer, Jakob L.
dc.contributor.authorGörgen, Konstantin
dc.contributor.authorDeuschel, Jannik
dc.contributor.authorWolffram, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorBracher, Johannes
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-25T13:30:00Z
dc.date.available2024-01-25T13:30:00Z
dc.date.copyright2022-10-31
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.accesstimeAT_PUBLICATION
dc.description.financePublikacja bezkosztowa
dc.description.versionFINAL_PUBLISHED
dc.description.volume2
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/S43856-022-00191-8
dc.identifier.issn2730-664X
dc.identifier.urihttps://repozytorium.uw.edu.pl//handle/item/113362
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-022-00191-8.pdf
dc.languageeng
dc.pbn.affiliationcomputer and information sciences
dc.relation.ispartofCommunications Medicine
dc.relation.pages136:1-17
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.enEpidemiology
dc.subject.enViral infection
dc.titleNational and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication