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The second-order election model and the performance of political parties in municipal elections

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cris.lastimport.scopus2024-02-12T19:31:48Z
dc.abstract.enElections at the municipal level are often treated as second-order elections (SOE), subordinate to the national electoral arena in a manner similar to the European elections. The original SOE model expects incumbent national parties to perform worse, while predicting smaller and ideologically extreme parties to perform better at the second-order electoral arena compared to the first-order (national) one. Based on a dataset covering aggregate election results in three Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway and Finland) with party-dominated local governments and a time span of more than three decades, we find that the performance of parties in municipal elections only to some degree conforms to the expectations of the model. Parties in national government usually suffer losses in municipal elections, but the effect of incumbency is contingent upon the party size: only large incumbent parties are punished in local elections. We find very weak support for the hypothesis that extreme parties perform better than moderates and suggests that this can be explained by the organisational effort required to field the candidates and campaign in multiple jurisdictions. We conclude that the SOE model should not be applied as a default to municipal elections when explaining political parties’ electoral performance.
dc.affiliationUniwersytet Warszawski
dc.contributor.authorKjaer, Ulrik
dc.contributor.authorGendźwiłł, Adam
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-26T10:47:24Z
dc.date.available2024-01-26T10:47:24Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.financeNie dotyczy
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/13540688221117245
dc.identifier.issn1354-0688
dc.identifier.urihttps://repozytorium.uw.edu.pl//handle/item/123111
dc.identifier.weblinkhttp://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/13540688221117245
dc.languageeng
dc.pbn.affiliationsocio-economic geography and spatial management
dc.relation.ispartofParty Politics
dc.relation.pages135406882211172
dc.rightsClosedAccess
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.ensecond-order elections
dc.subject.enlocal elections
dc.subject.enmulti-level politics
dc.titleThe second-order election model and the performance of political parties in municipal elections
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication