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A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level

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cris.lastimport.scopus2024-02-12T20:46:04Z
dc.abstract.enThis study aimed to identify an appropriate simple mathematical model to fit the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the national level for the early portion of the pandemic, before significant public health interventions could be enacted. The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic over time in 28 countries was analysed and fit to several simple rate models. The resulting model parameters were used to extrapolate projections for more recent data.While the Gompertz growth model (mean R2 = 0.998) best fit the current data, uncertainties in the eventual case limit introduced significant model errors. However, the quadratic rate model (mean R2 = 0.992) fit the current data best for 25 (89%) countries as determined by R2 values of the remaining models. Projection to the future using the simple quadratic model accurately forecast the number of future total number of cases 50% of the time up to 10 days in advance. Extrapolation to the future with the simple exponential model significantly overpredicted the total number of future cases. These results demonstrate that accurate future predictions of the case load in a given country can be made using this very simple model.
dc.affiliationUniwersytet Warszawski
dc.contributor.authorStafford, K. A.
dc.contributor.authorLavoie, M. C.
dc.contributor.authorBrandenburg, A.
dc.contributor.authorBlanco, N.
dc.contributor.authorGórna, Maria
dc.contributor.authorMerski, Matthew
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-24T18:12:30Z
dc.date.available2024-01-24T18:12:30Z
dc.date.copyright2021-03-25
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.accesstimeAT_PUBLICATION
dc.description.financePublikacja bezkosztowa
dc.description.versionFINAL_PUBLISHED
dc.description.volume149
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0950268821000649
dc.identifier.issn0950-2688
dc.identifier.urihttps://repozytorium.uw.edu.pl//handle/item/101868
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0950268821000649
dc.languageeng
dc.pbn.affiliationchemical sciences
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiology and Infection
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC-SA
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.enAnalysis of data
dc.subject.enCOVID-19
dc.subject.enmathematical modelling
dc.titleA simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication