Artykuł w czasopiśmie
Brak miniatury
Licencja
CC-BYCC-BY - Uznanie autorstwa
 

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes

Uproszczony widok
dc.abstract.enThe introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.
dc.affiliationUniwersytet Warszawski
dc.contributor.authorBODYCH, MARCIN
dc.contributor.authorSzczurek, Ewa
dc.contributor.authorROSIŃSKA, MAGDALENA
dc.contributor.authorPetelos, Elena
dc.contributor.authorPerc, Matjaz
dc.contributor.authorCzypionka, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorCuschieri, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorGiordano, Giulia
dc.contributor.authorGambin, Anna
dc.contributor.authorGogolewski, Krzysztof
dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Tyll
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-25T19:27:01Z
dc.date.available2024-01-25T19:27:01Z
dc.date.copyright2022-03-03
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.accesstimeAT_PUBLICATION
dc.description.financePublikacja bezkosztowa
dc.description.number1
dc.description.versionFINAL_PUBLISHED
dc.description.volume2
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/S43856-022-00084-W
dc.identifier.issn2730-664X
dc.identifier.urihttps://repozytorium.uw.edu.pl//handle/item/118635
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-022-00084-w.pdf
dc.languageeng
dc.pbn.affiliationcomputer and information sciences
dc.relation.ispartofCommunications Medicine
dc.relation.pages23: 1-14
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.sciencecloudnosend
dc.subject.enEpidemiology
dc.subject.enPublic health
dc.titleRisk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication