Teoria "czarnego łabędzia" a przewidywanie kryzysów i katastrof

The main objective of this paper is to present the black swan theory to analyse contemporary threats related to the cybersecurity domain. The aim of conducted works is to develop design assumptions justifying the need to obtain effective tools for monitoring crises and disasters. Their characteristic is that they appear unexpectedly and very rarely, therefore they are situated at the very end of the tail of the probability distribution. The main thesis of the work stands that ICT is not only the perpetrator of crises and disasters but can also help to build an effective and efficient tool for analysing threats. The progress of civilization and development of ICT in Poland brings the country more and more exposed to the threats described in the black swan theory. The conclusion of the research is the statement that shows and explains the need for building an early warning system to prevent the Black Swan phenomenon.